risk-management – Chasing Tales

TL;DR, because this is not a post for cricket casuals:

Fog in North India in December, heat waves in April, election clashes, and security disruptions are predictable risks, not bad luck.
Indian cricket continues to treat these as isolated incidents rather than as interconnected system-level risks that cascade across scheduling, logistics, player welfare, and revenue.
The BCCI now runs a ₹20,000-crore ecosystem, yet lacks a transparent, enterprise-wide risk management framework appropriate to that scale.
Global sports bodies manage similar uncertainties using formal risk frameworks (e.g., ISO 31000) to decide what risks to avoid, mitigate, insure, or accept.
Applying ISO 31000 to Indian cricket shows that systematic risk management would cost far less than repeated disruptions, cancellations, and credibility damage.
At this scale, ad-hoc risk management is not neutral—it is value-destructive.

And now onto the post.

This post has been inspired by watching the BCCI schedule summer matches in tropical South India, and winter season matches in our smoggy chilled North. Watching Indian cricketers roam about in Lucknow against South Africa while wearing pollution masks while broadcasters told us match was delayed due to low visibility conditions made me wonder what other risks BCCI could just avoid, or at least manage better.

These risks are predictable. ~~Fog~~Smog in North India in December isn’t a surprise. Heat waves in April aren’t black swans. Even geopolitical and security disruptions, while unpredictable, follow recognisable patterns. Yet Indian cricket continues to treat these as isolated “incidents” rather than as interconnected risks that can be anticipated, priced, and managed.

This is not about fog or heat. It’s about running a ₹20,000-crore system without an enterprise risk framework. So I’m doing an ISO 31000 evaluation for the BCCI. FOR FREE. Please someone share this with anyone influential in the BCCI.

Here’s a non-comprehensive list of some risk sources and events that can happen. You can skim through it if you like, I know it’s long, which already tells you lots:

Risk Category	Specific Risk	Example/Evidence	Risk Source	Impact Area
Geopolitical & Security	Cross-border conflict/military escalation	IPL 2025 suspension due to India-Pakistan tensions (May 2025)¹	Political/regulatory external context	Tournament suspension, revenue loss, player safety concerns
Geopolitical & Security	Communal/religious tensions	Mustafizur Rahman threats from Ujjain religious leaders (Dec 2025);²	Social/political external context	Player threats, stadium disruptions, player unavailability
Geopolitical & Security	Terrorism/security incidents	Potential attack on stadium or traveling teams	Security threat external context	Deaths/injuries, event cancellation, insurance claims
Weather & Climate	Dense fog	Lucknow T20I abandoned without a ball (Dec 17, 2025);³	Natural hazard/environmental	Match cancellation, travel disruptions, schedule compression
Weather & Climate	Extreme heat	Player heat exhaustion risks, crowd attendance decline	Environmental/climate change	Player health, match timing changes, spectator safety
Weather & Climate	Flooding/waterlogging	Monsoon season pitch damage, venue inaccessibility	Environmental/climate change	Venue unusability, match postponement, ground preparation delays
Weather & Climate	Drought	Groundwater depletion affecting pitch maintenance	Environmental/climate change	Pitch quality degradation, venue unusability
Weather & Climate	Severe storms/hailstorms	Potential infrastructure damage, match disruption	Environmental natural hazard	Venue damage, match abandonment, spectator safety
Operational & Logistics	Flight/travel cancellations	Flights cancelled across northern India^{(just search it, happens bi-weekly in December)}	Transportation system failure	Team travel delays, venue setup issues, player unavailability
Operational & Logistics	Equipment/supply disruption	Medical supplies, nutrition goods, cricket equipment delays to venues	Supply chain vulnerability	Player preparation delays, competitive disadvantage, safety risks
Operational & Logistics	Transportation of spectators	Mass transit failures, road congestion, parking unavailability	Infrastructure/logistics	Spectator attendance decline, safety concerns, venue capacity underutilization
Operational & Logistics	Accommodation unavailability	Limited hotel capacity during tournament, staff housing issues	Supply/demand mismatch	Team comfort degradation, player fatigue, franchise cost overruns
Venue & Infrastructure	Poor crowd management systems	Chinnaswamy stampede⁴	Operational/design vulnerability	Spectator casualties, reputational damage, regulatory action, venue unusability
Venue & Infrastructure	Structural deterioration	Aging concrete, roof damage, electrical system failures	Asset maintenance gap	Venue closure, safety risk, remediation costs
Venue & Infrastructure	Inadequate emergency response systems	Poor medical facilities, limited ambulance access, untrained staff	System design gap	Casualties during medical emergencies, litigation
Financial	Broadcasting rights disruption	Disney+ Hotstar and Star Sports unable to broadcast during IPL suspension	External event affecting revenue	Revenue loss for franchises/broadcasters (₹crores per day), contractual disputes
Financial	Sponsor withdrawal/advertising rate decline	Potential sponsorship cancellations due to event suspension or negative publicity	Market condition/risk perception	Franchise revenue decline, reduced capital for player wages
Financial	Insurance claims disputes	Ambiguous “war” and “riot” clauses limiting payout eligibility⁵	Contractual/insurance gap	Uncompensated losses during suspension or disruption
Financial	Currency fluctuation	Overseas player contracts, broadcast payment variability	Market/exchange rate risk	Player cost increases, sponsor revenue volatility
Financial	Franchise profitability uncertainty	Rising costs (venue, insurance, player wages) versus volatile revenue (attendance, viewership)	Business model vulnerability	Franchise owner losses, potential team withdrawal
Corruption & Integrity	Match-fixing/spot-fixing	CSK/RR spot-fixing scandal (2013);⁶ ongoing betting corruption concerns	Criminal/gambling-driven activity	Player bans, franchise suspension, sport integrity damage, legal action
Corruption & Integrity	Illegal betting rings	Vast unregulated Indian betting markets with links to match-fixers⁷ ⁸	Criminal enterprise/regulatory gap	Match manipulation, player recruitment to fixing, law enforcement involvement
Corruption & Integrity	Umpire/official bribery	Potential fixing of key decisions affecting match outcomes	Corruption risk	Match integrity compromise, game credibility loss
Personnel	Key player unavailability	International obligations, injuries, visa issues, political reasons (Mustafizur situation)	Competing objectives/external restrictions	Team competitiveness, schedule disruptions, franchise value impact
Personnel	Player health/injury risks	Heat exhaustion, match injuries, stress-related conditions from uncertainty	Physical hazards/psychological stress	Loss of key players, season disruption, franchise financial impact
Personnel	Coach/staff turnover	Mid-season departures, conflicts between franchise and coaching staff	HR/organizational risk	Team continuity loss, player morale impact
Regulatory	Government restrictions/timeline conflicts	Elections scheduling conflicts with IPL dates;⁹ security directives impacting match scheduling	Government policy/external political context	Schedule changes, venue restrictions, resource allocation changes
Regulatory	Visa/immigration restrictions	Player visa delays, border restrictions preventing team travel	Government/immigration policy	Player unavailability, team incomplete status
Regulatory	Tax/regulatory changes	Changing tax levies on sports franchises, regulatory compliance requirements	Government fiscal policy	Franchise cost increases, profitability compression
Demand & Market	Fan disengagement/viewership decline	Cancellations and disruptions reduce fan engagement, ticket sales suffer	Market/behavioral shift	Revenue decline, reduced franchise valuations, reduced sponsorship interest
Demand & Market	Competitive threat from other entertainment	Social media, gaming, OTT platforms diverting cricket viewers	Technology/market disruption	Declining viewership, reduced sponsorship value, lower ticket sales
Demand & Market	Social media backlash/reputational damage	Negative sentiment from cancellations, perceived mismanagement	Communications/perception risk	Brand damage, sponsor pressure, fan retention loss
Health & Safety	Pandemic-related restrictions	COVID-like scenarios requiring lockdowns or capacity restrictions	Health emergency/external event	Match cancellation, venue capacity limits, player quarantine requirements
Health & Safety	Food/water safety incidents	Contaminated food/water affecting teams or spectators	Health/hygiene risk	Illness outbreaks, regulatory action, liability
Health & Safety	Air quality/pollution issues	High pollution affecting visibility, player respiratory health	Environmental hazard	Match visibility issues, player health concerns, match cancellation

Before diving into solutions, let’s define what we’re actually talking about. ISO 31073¹⁰ establishes the vocabulary for various terms used in ISO 31000,¹¹ which is the ISO framework for risk management. According to the frameworks, risk is “the effect of uncertainty on objectives”.
Here,

Objectives are whatever results the organisation wishes to achieve.
Effect means a deviation from the expected, whether the deviation is positive, negative, or both;
Uncertainty occurs from a deficit of information; and

Therefore, risk is a deviation from the aims that an entity is working towards caused due to lack of knowledge about the situations surrounding the objective. The deviation can have a positive or negative outcome, but the deviation means it is still a risk, and leads to risk consequences, or outcomes that affect the objectives.

Uncertainty can never be removed entirely. As we see in the normal distribution, risk events can happen even when we are 99.999% certain of our processes. This is called residual risk, or when a risk event occurs even when controls have been applied against the risk source. An event is the occurrence or change of circumstances (the bridge collapses, prices spike, new regulations take effect that can be the source of a risk. A risk source is an element with potential to give rise to risk (think: aging infrastructure, volatile commodity prices, regulatory change). Understanding residual risk is critical for determining whether further treatment is needed or whether the organisation should accept and monitor what remains. It is important to emphasise here that everyone perceives risk differently (risk perception): engineers might see technical risks as manageable; the public might see the same risks as terrifying. Effective risk communication requires understanding these perceptual differences.

The likelihood of an event, is a broad expression of the chance of something happening, and can be expressed qualitatively or quantitatively, but in the previous posts we have understood what a probability is, as expressed between 0 and 1 (here and here), and frequency, which is when we count the number of the type of events we are quantifying. understanding these basic terms helps us understand how vulnerable we are due to our exposure to a source of risk, as well as how to build resilience. Because we’re discussing a standard, these words have specific definitions:

Vulnerability refers to intrinsic properties creating susceptibility to risk sources.
Exposure measures the extent to which an organization is subject to an event.
Resilience captures adaptive capacity in complex, changing environments, so this isn’t about preventing events, it’s about how to recover from them.

Understanding risk also helps organisations understand which risks to accept, and which to defend against. New Zealand’s sports sector adopted ISO 31000 in 2016; Australia’s sporting associations follow it; international sporting events apply it to pandemic preparedness. This is called Risk attitude- the organisation’s overall approach towards risk, and their tendency to pursue, avoid, or accept it. Attitudes towards risk always depend upon any entity’s risk appetite (the amount and type of risk they are willing to accept), and their risk tolerance, which looks at specific risks for each objective. An example of risk appetite is the willingness to invest in innovative technology, and that of risk tolerance is the amount of specific risk an organisation may accept for data breaches in particular.

ISO 31000 Framework for Indian Cricket
While it may appear that these are all just the costs of doing business in India, I don’t think this is true. Also, other sports systems facing similar uncertainties—pandemics, extreme weather, terrorism, financial volatility—don’t operate this way. They use formal risk management frameworks to decide what to avoid, what to mitigate, what to insure, and what to accept. ISO 31000 is one such framework, and it’s suited to complex, multi-stakeholder systems like Indian cricket. Here it is applied to Indian cricket:

1. Establish Context (Where Are We Playing?)

External context
- Geopolitics: India–Pakistan tensions, elections, security environment.
- Climate: Fog in North India, heat waves, monsoon, long‑term climate change.
- Market: OTT platforms, competing sports/entertainment, sponsor expectations.
Internal context
- BCCI governance and decision‑making.
- Franchise finances, contracts, insurance.
- Stadium infrastructure, ground staff capacity, logistics capability.
Risk criteria
- What level of disruption is acceptable?
- Which risks are “never acceptable” (deaths, match‑fixing, major stampedes)?
- What is the minimum acceptable probability of completing a season as scheduled?

2. Risk Assessment (What Can Go Wrong, How Bad, How Often?)

Identify risks
- Use the big table: geopolitical, weather, logistics, stadium safety, financial, corruption, personnel, regulatory, demand, health.
- For each, note: risk source → potential event → likely consequences.
Analyze risks
- Estimate likelihood (e.g. “fog in Lucknow in December” = high; “pandemic lockdown every year” = low).
- Estimate consequence (e.g. “stadium stampede” = catastrophic; “one match fogged off” = moderate).
- Factor in vulnerability (old stadiums, fragile logistics) and resilience (backup plans, cash reserves).
Evaluate risks
- Plot likelihood × consequence.
- Decide which risks are:
  - Intolerable (must be treated immediately).
  - Tolerable with treatment (controls and monitoring).
  - Acceptable (monitor only).

3. Risk Treatment (What Do We Do About Each Risk?)

For each major risk, choose a treatment option (or a mix):

Avoid the risk
- Don’t schedule T20Is in dense‑fog cities during December–January.
- Don’t use stadiums that fail minimum structural and crowd‑safety standards.
Mitigate / reduce the risk
- Upgrade stadium exits, crowd‑control systems, and medical response.
- Build travel redundancy: buffer days, alternative flight routes, backup buses/trains.
- Strengthen anti‑corruption: monitoring betting patterns, education, strict sanctions.
- Heat protocols: evening matches, drinks breaks, heat‑stress monitoring.
Share / transfer the risk
- Tournament‑wide insurance for cancellation, terrorism, extreme weather.
- Clear contracts with broadcasters/sponsors about rescheduling and force majeure.
Retain (accept) residual risk
- Accept that a few games may still be lost to weather or logistics despite controls.
- Document what level of residual risk is being accepted, by whom, and with what monitoring.

4. Implementation & Control (Who Owns What, and How Is It Run?)

Governance & roles
- BCCI Risk Committee: owns the overall risk framework and major decisions.
- Franchise risk owners: handle team‑level logistics, personnel, finances.
- Venue operators: own stadium safety, crowd management, emergency response.
Communication & consultation
- Regular briefings with teams, broadcasters, police, local authorities.
- Clear public communication on cancellations, rescheduling, and safety decisions.
Monitoring
- Track near‑misses (e.g. small crushes at gates, close calls with fog or heat).
- Maintain dashboards: incidents per season, delays, injuries, corruption alerts.

5. Review & Continuous Improvement (What Did We Learn This Season?)

After each season / major incident:

Incident reviews
- IPL suspension: What early warning signs did we miss? Could we have acted sooner?
- Chinnaswamy stampede: Which design and process failures led to casualties?
- Lucknow fog‑out: How should scheduling rules change for fog‑prone venues?
- Mustafizur threats: How do we handle politically sensitive players and venues?
Effectiveness checks
- Did our treatments reduce likelihood or consequence as expected?
- Did any controls fail or create new risks (e.g. over‑policing crowds)?
Update the system
- Revise risk criteria, appetite, and tolerances where needed.
- Amend scheduling policies, venue standards, insurance terms, and contracts.
- Feed lessons into next season’s planning: same framework, better parameters.

To-Do List
If Indian cricket embraced systematic risk management, the BCCI would have:

A Risk Management Policy (BCCI document) establishing appetite and tolerance
A Risk Register (updated quarterly) tracking all relevant risk categories with assessed severity and treatment strategies
Incident Response Protocols that trigger automatically (e.g., if weather forecast shows fog, reserve dates activate; if geopolitical tension rises, security protocols engage)
Venue Certification requiring regular safety audits for all stadiums
Insurance covering defined scenarios with unambiguous language
Player Education on corruption risks, mental health impacts of uncertainty, safety protocols
Stakeholder Transparency (fans, sponsors, broadcasters informed about residual risks and mitigation strategies)
Continuous Learning (post-incident reviews feeding into policy updates)

Why bother?
Risks are interconnected: geopolitics affects scheduling, which affects logistics, which affects player welfare, which affects performance, which affects revenue. One shock propagates through the entire system.

But the real argument is how all this affects BCCI’s income: In fiscal year 2024-25, the BCCI earned a total of ₹20,686 crore—double what it was five years earlier. But this income doesn’t flow uniformly. It comes from multiple sources, each vulnerable to different risks:

IPL: ₹5,761 crore (59.1% of FY 2024-25 BCCI revenue)¹²
International cricket (men’s): ₹361 crore (3.7%)¹²
ICC distributions: ₹1,042 crore (10.7%)¹²
WPL (women’s): ₹951 crore broadcast deal over five years = approximately ₹190 crore annually¹³
Interest and other income: ₹1,500+ crore from treasury management ¹² ¹⁴
Sponsorships, licensing, other: ₹400 crore and growing¹⁵

Total bank balance: ₹20,686 crore.¹⁶ At this scale, ad-hoc risk management is not neutral—it is negligent.

The numbers are sourced, but even if the numbers are completely wrong, the logic I’m about to present you with will still hold.

Consider the May 2025 IPL suspension. Its immediate impact was ₹1,600-2,000 crore in tournament revenue loss. But the suspension also:

Forced reschedules of international T20I series planned around IPL slots
Delayed women’s cricket planning (WPL scheduling coordination)
Created cascading effects on domestic Ranji Trophy schedules
Disrupted team preparation windows for the Asia Cup (subsequently postponed)

When the IPL shut down due to the events that followed the Pahalgam terrorism, one risk event rippled across all BCCI’s operations. The ₹3,500-4,000 crore total ecosystem loss wasn’t borne by IPL alone—it distributed across broadcasters, sponsors, franchises, international teams visiting India, and state cricket associations that depend on BCCI’s distributions (approximately ₹100-125 crore in combined sponsorship, broadcast, and match-day revenue for 16 matches ¹⁵ and the broadcaster JioCinema faced losses of ₹1,900-2,000 crore (35% of their ₹5,500 crore seasonal projection)¹⁷ While war is a systemic risk (read more here, scroll down to the risk sections), a stampede at a celebration event is not.

Now let’s do some hypothetical maths. Let’s say of BCCI’s total ₹20,686 crore exposure, 10% is under difficult-to-avoid-risk, and another 20% are things that could go wrong but if everything happened normally (planes flew on time, luggage was not lost, people had common sense, etc.) it would not go wrong. Now assume costs of mitigation to be between 10-20% of the cost of losses. This would be the breakdown of that exposure:

Risk Category	% of Total Exposure	Exposure Amount (₹ Crore)	Annual Loss Probability	Expected Annual Loss (₹ Crore)	Mitigation Cost (10-20% of loss)	Net Benefit if Mitigated
High Risk (Geopolitical, Corruption, Major Infrastructure)	10%	₹2,068.6	20-30%	₹414-620	₹41-124	₹290-579
Medium Risk (Weather, Logistics, Personnel, Sponsorship)	20%	₹4,137.2	30-40%	₹1,241-1,655	₹124-331	₹910-1,531
Low Risk (Normal operations)	70%	₹14,480.2	1-5%	₹145-724	₹15-145	₹130-709
TOTAL	100%	₹20,686	~15-20% aggregate	₹1,800-3,000	₹180-600	₹1,200-2,820

Now let’s do scenario analysis with ILLUSTRATIVE NUMBERS.

Scenario A – No Mitigation (Do Nothing)

Element	Amount (₹ Crore)	Notes
Reserves/ Bank Balance	₹20,686	Baseline
Expected Losses (unmitigated)	₹1,800-3,000	From Table 1
Insurance Recovery (40-50% of losses)	₹720-1,500	Partial coverage; war/corruption not covered
Net Loss After Insurance	₹1,080-2,280	Uninsured exposure
Effective Revenue After Losses	₹18,406-19,606	Revenue minus net loss
Annual Cost to Organization	₹0	No prevention investment
Net Outcome	₹18,406-19,606	Revenue minus losses

Scenario B – Full Mitigation (Invest in Risk Management)

Element	Amount (₹ Crore)	Notes
Reserves/ Bank Balance	₹20,686	Baseline (unchanged)
Mitigation Investment	₹180-600	Cost to prevent/reduce losses
Expected Losses (with mitigation)	₹450-900	Reduced by 60-75% through mitigation
Insurance Recovery (40-50%)	₹180-450	Still applicable, lower losses
Net Loss After Insurance & Mitigation	₹270-450	Dramatically reduced
Effective Revenue After Mitigation & Losses	₹20,236-20,416	Revenue minus mitigation cost and net loss
Annual Cost to Organization	₹180-600	Mitigation investment
Net Outcome	₹20,236-20,416	Much better than Scenario A

None of the above means that BCCI doesn’t do risk mitigation at all. They must do. Matches are insured, security is coordinated with state authorities, schedules are adjusted, and contingency plans exist. But much of this risk management remains reactive, fragmented, and event-specific, rather than systematic.

The scale of Indian cricket has outgrown this approach. What is now a ₹20,000-crore ecosystem operates across volatile geopolitics, increasingly extreme climate conditions, aging infrastructure, fragile logistics, and intense public scrutiny. In such an environment, risk does not arrive as isolated shocks. It propagates. A fog-out affects scheduling, which affects logistics, which affects player welfare, which affects performance, which ultimately affects revenue and credibility. Treating each disruption as an unfortunate exception misses the underlying structure of the problem.

Active risk management does not promise certainty, nor does it eliminate risk. What it offers is clarity: an explicit understanding of working to anticipate risks in our cricket system so that most can simply be prevented, and those that cannot be prevented are mitigated. The IPL did not need to be part of India’s war theatre. After the Pahalgam attacks those matches could have been shifted to lower risk areas, such as away from the border, and we wouldn’t have had Ricky Ponting trying to persuade foreigners to stay back and play.¹⁸

Sources

Tag: risk-management

Risk – II: ISO 31000:2018 as applied to Indian cricket

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